SpecimenVOL. I
Import a corpus
The shelfSPECIMEN / REV-CLIMATE
LITERATURE REVIEW · 8 PAPERS

Direct air capture economics

Capex trajectories and LCOA forecasting, 2019 – 2024

Daniel RodriguezResearch Scientist · Carbon SystemsColumbia SIPA2026-04-07
Abstract

This review surveys eight techno-economic analyses of direct-air-capture systems published between 2019 and 2024. Solid-sorbent and liquid-solvent projections diverge by 2× at 2035; the divergence is driven entirely by assumed electrolyzer capex rather than DAC capex.

§ I — Citation graph
hover a theme to tint:
§ II — Synthesis

Solid and liquid sorbents hit the field in parallel.

The first commercial solid-sorbent plant reached $1000/t at 2021 commissioning [climeworks 21]; optimistic techno-economic models projected $105/t by 2050 [al. 19], though amine degradation remains the leading durability question [al. 23]. The liquid-solvent baseline is an aqueous NaOH cycle [al. 18].

Cost trajectories depend on electrolyzer capex, not DAC capex.

Cross-model assessments show >2× variance in 2050 projections [al. 19], building on earlier IPCC-aligned NET cost ranges [al. 18]. The latest decomposition attributes 58% of this variance to electrolyzer capex assumptions [al. 24] — implying DAC cost is now downstream of hydrogen-economy progress, not primarily a DAC engineering problem.

§ III — Gap candidates
  1. 01Electrolyzer capex dominates projections

    Projected 2035 LCOA ranges from $120/t (optimistic electrolyzer learning) to $240/t (pessimistic). 58% of this variance traces to the electrolyzer assumption alone (Bistline 2024). No current DAC paper decouples the two learning curves.

§ IV — Corpus · 8 papers
  1. [climeworks2021]Climeworks (2021). Orca plant operations report. Climeworks white paper.
  2. [fasihi2019]Fasihi et al. (2019). Techno-economic assessment of solid DAC. J. Cleaner Production.
  3. [young2023]Young et al. (2023). Amine degradation pathways. Nature Energy.
  4. [keith2018]Keith et al. (2018). A process for DAC with NaOH solution. Joule.
  5. [mcqueen2021]McQueen et al. (2021). A review of direct air capture. PETI.
  6. [fuss2018]Fuss et al. (2018). Negative emissions — part 2: costs and potentials. Environ. Res. Lett..
  7. [realmonte2019]Realmonte et al. (2019). An inter-model assessment of DAC in 1.5°C scenarios. Nature Communications.
  8. [bistline2024]Bistline et al. (2024). DAC cost trajectories under learning curves. Joule.